Boys Gone Wild!

Well, that didn’t take long at all, did it? The New York Times stirred from its slumber and finally posted a story on the Ethiopian Crisis. And the death count had not even reached the thousands yet. My, my.

So… the brain surgeons running the EPRDF’s “we are enforcing law and order” campaign must be wondering whatever they did wrong to find themselves in this pickle. Apparently killing unarmed students and getting away with it… not as easy as it used to be. Damn globalization!

A few weeks ago, Jimm’ah “[Meles] would meet me at airports in Paris, Atlanta, and London when I came into the region, spread his war maps on the floor, and describe his progress against Mengistu's forces” Ca’ra’s soldier boy was being heralded as the “one of the most progressive African leader.” By the way, at the time that Mistah Jimm’ah and Ato Meles were getting cozy-cozy over war plans, Meles was one of them… what do you call those Godless wonders… oh, yeah… Marxists. Now, you think that Mistah Jimm’ah ever said to himself, “You know, Jimm’ah… this feller is a commie. Maybe you shouldn’t be so buddy-buddy”?

Nah.

So annnnnyway… PE (pre-election) Meles was the renaissance leader (remember those were Clinton’s words) that Africa needed so badly.

PM Meles’ co-renaissance leader was none other than Isayas Aferwerki of Ertra, another golden boy who didn’t take baby steps towards sociopath power mongering. Remember him?

But back to the story.

Since his Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) seized power in 1991, Mr. Meles has been the country's undisputed leader, the man who has driven policy and travelled the world selling his vision. He has charmed donors and foreign governments and was one of two African leaders appointed to the UK's Commission for Africa.

Charmed, we're sure.

Then came the Ethiopian elections of 2005 and EPRDF –gulp!- didn’t have enough statisticians on hand to figure out that, for example, a voting district with, say, a population of 17,000 people couldn’t logically produce 36,000 votes—even if you counted all the split personalities. But we know who to blame for this fuzzy math… trounced Minister of Un-Education, the now damsel in distress, Ms. Genet Zewdie. (see Dagmawi’s excellent analysis on the genesis of the elections and how everything went wrong for the EPRDF.)

So that vote rigging thing and pictures of soldiers clubbing students pissed off someone at the AP because it started telling everybody that Meles is running a “sometime authoritarian” government.

You would think that that would be a hint for people like Bereket “Baghdad Bob” Simon, EPRDF spokesman and the land’s Mis-Information Minister, that maybe they should ease up on the browbeating.

You would think.

“Today, some of [the opposition’s] followers -- and some who wanted to use this opportunity for looting -- have gathered in some parts of Addis and disrupted the smooth functioning of life. So the government had to use the anti-riot police to resolve the situation,'' Bereket Simon said.

“The smooth functioning of life”?? As in “why can’t they leave us alone to kill the students” kind of smooth functioning of life? When you put a city ill at ease, Mr. Bereket, by beating up its kids, you can almost be guaranteed that there is a premise to assume that there is no “smooth functioning of life.” Seriously, look up “smooth functioning of life” in the encyclopedia when you come up for breath.

Wait. Did the Minister of Information of Ethiopia just say “…disrupted the smooth functioning of life. So the government had to use the anti-riot police to resolve the situation” ???

While he is at it, Mr. Bereket might want to look up the definition of “to resolve.” When people are dead and you have a city in siege, it’s not what anyone would call resolved.

And then of course you have the “the Opposition made me do it” excuse that doesn’t seem to be convincing anyone. It’s past time to retire that line, but it serves a greater purpose for the EPRDF. We’ll come to that.

Perhaps Ato Bereket can lean from the Oppositions’ response:

''These murderous acts have resulted in the killing and wounding of a large number of innocent Addis Ababa citizens,'' the statement said. ''The responsibility for these atrocities lay solely with the government and ruling party.''

Okay, so what does a “sometime authoritarian regime” turn into when pictures of bloodied old men and women and kids keep popping up, disrupting the, um, smooth functioning of committing carnage?

… but a heavy-handed reaction from Mr Meles' security forces to public demonstrations in Addis Ababa is certain to be viewed as another blow to Africa's so-called "renaissance".

Ouch! That would be the BBC finally bitch-slapping that “renaissance leader” fairytale.

Then the BBC turns a little Dr. Phil on us.

Meles Zenawi can reflect on the fact that he's now been in power as long as the man he helped to overthrow - Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam.

Sorry to break this to the BBC, but the EPRDF doesn’t do “reflection.” Any person keen on reflection and introspection would have thought twice about gunning down college students… but that could just be me.

Oh, Financial Times, bring it home:

Yet to many, Mr Meles's government fails in key areas the commission seeks to espouse - good governance and economic development.

Opsie.

According to a US State Department report, the government's human rights record remains poor, with allegations of unlawful killings and "limited freedom of association".

The economic outlook is also far from rosy, with complaints that reform has been too slow and that there are excessive state controls.

Sounding less and less that a renaissance, progressive man with each passing day, Meles is.

And how is the press explaining the Prime Minister’s latest about face? Financial Times, I do believe you have a theory…

In many ways the dichotomy between the government's unpopularity at home and the esteem in which Mr. Meles is held in the international community can be explained by the ambiguities surrounding the 50-year-old.

In the mid-1970s, when he and other university students left the capital for life as guerrilla fighters, Mr. Meles was brimming with Marxist-Leninist ideologies.

Almost up to the point that his Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) - which forms the core of the EPRDF - seized power, Mr. Meles and others reportedly called for Albanian-style socialism. But as the guerrillas marched on Addis Ababa they realised they were entering an altered world; communism was collapsing and Marxists had few allies.

The EPRDF indicated it would embrace free-market policies and democratise the nation. But analysts and former rebels say "Marxist baggage" continues to influence the prime minister.

"Meles is a capitalist on the outside, a Marxist on the inside, which is why they are in a state of disarray," says one analyst. Former TPLF members concur. When Mr. Meles promoted his idea of revolutionary democracy, "I never understood it myself, even though I was in the party," says one.

Ay, Caramba! You mean to tell us that Tony Blair and Jimm’ah Carter have been fraternizing with a Capi-Marxist all along? That this is a man who says one thing but practices another? You mean that he has had a sinister agenda all this time and he was fooling all of the people all of the time? Say it ain’t so.

BBC… say it ain’t so…

But in 1974, [Meles] left to join the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) at the start of its armed struggle against the Derg (military junta).

In the 1980s, the TPLF had a reputation as hard-line communists who saw Enver Hoxha's Albania as a model state.

Uh-oh. I suppose that was bound to come out sooner or later. But wait, when did Jimm’ah and Ato Meles get acquainted?

During these months, in 1989 and 1990, I also became acquainted with Meles Zenawi, the leader of Tigrayan revolutionaries.

Well we are shocked… shocked I tell you. Who knew?? And.. wow… this is going to be uncomfortable to explain.

BBC… anything else you have to say?

Observers used to joke that when the TPLF captured towns from Mengistu's Marxist regime, they would take down the ubiquitous portraits of Marx, Engels and Lenin in government offices, and replace them with even larger ones.

Um. That’s also going to be hard to explain away, especially when,

Since 1991, the TPLF has remained the leading party in the ruling EPRDF coalition…

No good can come out of that,

It might be helpful if the next time PM Meles or Ato Bereket come out to brief the press if they wear a “I am not a Commie” t-shirt… just to give Mr. Jimm’ah a out clause.

And so we come to the elections… Financial Times...

"He underestimated that people have been suppressed for 14 years," says one diplomat. "Suddenly the cork was taken out of the bottle with the presence of the observers."

Former TPLF members say he relied too heavily on cadres to gauge opinion, arguing the party was weakened by a split in 2001. That occurred largely because of his leadership of the border war with Eritrea when he resisted calls to take the Eritrean port of Assab, which many Ethiopians deem a huge error for landlocked Ethiopia.

The split was the most serious challenge to Mr. Meles and a dozen senior party members were dismissed, removing internal threats to his leadership.

But while his position was reinforced, former TPLF members say he is alienated from the people.

"As a person he is very clever, but as a leader how can you be clever if you do not see what is going on?" says Amare Aregawi, an editor and former TPLF member.

Oh such sweet words of clarity. So that’s what’s afflicting PM Meles & Associates! Not seeing what’s going on? I just thought they were being your average, hardcore, ruthless, power-hungry, megalomaniac evil-geniuses. Shows you what I know.

And so, from progressive, to authoritarian to Godless Commie—all in three days.

Yesterday, boys and girls, we examined how the EPRDF will be going after the Opposition—not the big players, of course, but the operatives. And, ka-ching! we were right on schedule because on Wednesday the rounding up of Opposition members started.

From the Opposition’s web page:

Each and every movement of the leaders, private and business could not be free from their follow up. The problem has been more severe on Lidetu Ayalew, who have been detained the whole of today at his office with gun men. In a latest development he has been beaten by the capturers and was not allowed to move out to his house. His secretary and his relatives who came to get him dinner have just been taken to custody.

The other leaders including Engineer Hailu Shawl, Dr. Berhanu Nega and Dr. Befekadu Degefe are in what one could call a house arrest.

And what were the EPRDF’s chief buddies doing when all of this is unfolding? Well, Mr. Blair is in DC on a grand “let’s help Africa” cruise. (Black tie required.) You know what would help Africa, Mr. Blair? Not propping up people like PM Meles. How’s that for help? Keep your money, keep your aggrandized sense of self. Keep your nervous twitch. We just want you to not patronize us by saying that PM Meles is the best we can do, and that he’s good enough for Africans. He is not. Why can’t you understand that we know we can have better? And, oh yeah, stop pressuring the Opposition to capitulate. Why do you think a diluted version of democracy is good ‘nuff for us? So, how about that kind of help?

And Mistah Jimm’ah? What was Mistah Jimm’ah doing on a bright shiny day in Jo’ja? Oh, wait, first, here’s how he defended PM Meles’ decision to ban demonstrations:

Former US president Jimmy Carter said Monday that a month-long ban on all post-election demonstrations in the Ethiopian capital was "not excessive" and lauded the conduct of the weekend vote.

The ex-US leader said he had been satisfied by Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi's personal explanation of his decision to ban public demonstrations in Addis Ababa for the next 30 days, a move questioned and criticized by many.

"His opinion was that this was a cautionary measure, temporary in nature, geographically limited to prevent any confrontation of a violent nature between winners and losers here in the capital city," Carter told reporters.

It is such a magnificently condescending statement that it takes one's breath away. This is the man we are all waiting for to make a final declaration on whether the elections were free and fair? Oh, Africa...

So, anyway, in a cruel twist of fate, Mr. Jimm’ah was in a “human rights” conference in the ATL and he poked his head out just long enough to throw out this morsel of ire and moral indignation:

Former President Carter on Tuesday called for the United States to shut down the Guantanamo Bay prison to demonstrate its commitment to human rights.

"The U.S. continues to suffer terrible embarrassment and a blow to our reputation … because of reports concerning abuses of prisoners in Iraq, Afghanistan and Guantanamo," Carter said after a two-day human rights conference at his Atlanta center.

Such reports have surfaced despite President Bush's "bold reminder that America is determined to promote freedom and democracy around the world," Carter said.

A quick check of my map tells me that Ethiopia is still considered to be in the general vicinity of “around the world” and Mr. Carter didn’t fare very well in standing up to promoting democracy when he was called to that task. So, let’s not get all cuter than a speckled pup in a red wagon just yet, Mr. Carter. You have some ‘splainin’ to do.

Then of course came a windfall of statements from the west.

The EU’s chief observer Ana Gomes seems to be one of the few ones with the balls to use the “c” word when it comes to expressing her views on the EPRDF’s rampage.

The mission has conveyed to the government its condemnation of the home arrests and other harassment and threatening measures imposed on the opposition coalition ... leaders in the last days, severally curtailing their political activities and personal movement,” said Ana Gomes, head of the EU observer mission.

Well whaddaya know? I have a feeling (call it a woman’s intuition) that Ms. Gomes will soon quit her job in protest and in disgust after diplo-speak finally gets on her last nerves. She will finally be the one to blow the lid off of this cesspool, unable to keep quiet while the EPRDF rears up to do some more “law enforcing.” Perhaps she will be the one who will have the forethought and conscience to stop a looming genocide before it starts… or, if we are lucky, before a few hundred thousand people die and the Hollywood movie about their death premieres.

But the most pathetic “we are concerned” statement comes from Britain’s Foreign Minister, Lord Triesman, who, in a stiflingly oblique way managed to squeeze in a few words of gratuitous “Oh those little Africans, don’t they know it’s tea time?” proclamation. Your Lordship, do, please, appraise us of your feelings…

I have been alarmed to hear reports of loss of life and continuing unrest in Ethiopia and extend my deep sympathies to the victims and their families. I note with deep concern reports that the security force’s reaction resulted in many of the deaths.

Yeah. Death is usually the result when you fire live bullets into a crowd, your Lordship… but perhaps your valet never told you that.

These incidents should urgently be investigated. Equally we note and regret the reported deaths of some members of the security forces.

Interestingly, I couldn’t find any reference to non-civilian deaths—not even from Baghdad Bereket. But do go on, your Lord-ness:

The UK fully supports the EU Presidency statement of 7 June. The International Development Secretary, Hilary Benn, spoke to Prime Minister Meles on 7 June, urging restraint. Our Ambassador reiterated this message to opposition leaders.

Can someone please explain to me what the Opposition is being urged to restrain from? From issuing Press Releases, ‘coz that’s what it’s been doing… and urging calm... y'know.. or "sissy stuff", as that kind of thing is called in EPRDF circles. So, a ruling party that kills unarmed citizens and an opposition party that’s holed up at home gets the same “please restrain yourself” scolding? The opposition is not armed. It does not have an army. It’s not as if someone raided a university and started shooting random.. oh, the government did that! Oh, well. Then it makes sense for the Opposition to be lectured on the merits of restraint.

Anything else, Lordy?

It is vital that leaders of all political parties take full responsibility… There is a clear consensus throughout the international community that all parties must respect the constitutionally established law and democratic institutions and that they should call on their supporters and the security forces to exercise restraint and respect international human rights.

Okay. Can you imagine what hackneyed, halfhearted decree LT would have come with if he wasn’t pressured by Ethiopians in the UK to even provide a statement?? Can you imagine what triteness could have come from the Foreign Minister were it not for the world watching? It IS vital that all political parties take responsibility. Can you put that in big letters and zip a fax over to PM Meles’ office, please, your Lordship? Because as far as PM Meles is concerned, it is within his right to cause turmoil.

And what’s with…

…all parties must respect the constitutionally established law and democratic institutions

I wonder if arresting opposition parties and killing students is constitutional? Let me re-read the Ethiopian Constitution and get back with you on that.

At least Kofi Annan, perhaps his conscience still wounded from the Rwandan debacle, managed to eek out a statement that included the “c” word:

The Secretary-General condemns the violence in Addis Ababa that resulted in the shooting and reported killing of a number of demonstrators by security forces. The Secretary-General is seriously concerned about the tense situation that has arisen due to controversies regarding the conduct of the recent elections.

Hooray… and hello, Mr. Annan’s new spine. Nice to meet you.

We await Condi Rice’s and President Bush’s statement… annnyyy day now.

So… what will be the EPRDF’s next step, boys and girls? Well, let’s look at its statement from Wednesday:

… accusing the opposition of inciting violence and warned: "these destructive forces who wish to plunge our country into terminal crisis ... would not be exempt from the firm hand of the law."

“Firm hand of the law”… According to the EPRDF decoder that means, “folks, this was just the beginning. The kiddie gloves are coming off!” Most certainly a lot more Opposition members will be rounded up… some will perish. It’s classic EPRDF.

Next will come its coup de grace… It will accuse the Opposition of inciting ethnic cleansing—a charge it has already leveled several times on the Opposition since way before the elections (see Premature Evaluation for a chronicle of events). It will “find evidence” that the Opposition has “given orders to their supporters to go out and kill… let’s see, all Tigrayans, and eat their flesh before dawn.”

And thus a self fulfilling prophecy of a government that is determined to take down Ethiopia with it as it starts sinking in the quicksand it has driven itself to. The EPRDF and PM Meles has been liberally throwing around the charge that the opposition harbors Hutu Interhamwe ambitions. The next step is finding a way to incite that riot.

3…2…1…